The big news coming out of the USGA press conference was obviously the rollback pause. But I also want to make sure everyone saw what John Bodenhamer said about the expected winds this week at Shinnecock Hills and how that forecast has changed his team's setup plans. It's clear that Bodenhamer is concerned about the possibility of a play stoppage on Thursday.
"We arrived here last week; it was pretty docile," he said. "We were a little worried about not getting any wind. Well, as of last Thursday night or Friday, that changed significantly. As we come into every U.S. Open, we have multiple scenarios, multiple game plans that we can impact depending on the weather....
"We began to pivot last Friday night when we began to see the wind forecast.... Thursday, sustained winds throughout the day of 12 to 24. More on the upper end of that with gusts from 24 to 36 miles an hour. When we start to talk about numbers in the mid-30s, that becomes problematic in a number of ways — golf balls just staying still on the putting green.
"Some of the models that we're working... show winds reaching as high as over 40 miles per hour. We hope that doesn't happen. We're preparing for all that we can, and that duration on Thursday will be... anywhere from 10:30 in the morning, 11 a.m., all the way through most of the day until 5 or 6 p.m. It's a long duration that we'll have to prepare the golf course for."
Right now, the forecast for tomorrow on windy.com still shows a strong SSW wind hitting between midday and sunset, and peaking around 5 p.m. with a 21 mph average and 34 mph gusts. If the speeds stay in that range, my guess is that the golf course will be right on the edge.
Bodenhamer went on to say that the USGA has adjusted its target green speeds from 11.5/12 to the mid-10s, and will be regularly syringing greens during competition on Thursday and Friday.
But no matter how much water they put down, Shinnecock's greens will crisp up if gusts reach the mid- to high 30s.
This could be amazing for fans. For the USGA, though, it could make for a very tough decision on whether to continue play on Thursday afternoon. Obviously any kind of stoppage at a firm, windy Shinnecock would be tremendously disappointing. But memories of 2004 and 2018 will likely make the USGA err on the side of caution.
Another interesting note from Bodenhamer: Saturday's wind forecast is also alarming, but less for speed than direction.
"What changes on Saturday, the winds aren't quite as strong, but they still reach gusts over 30 miles an hour, but the forecast calls for winds to come out of the west/northwest. When they're south/southwest, they blow up from front to back many of these greens, particularly the problematic greens — or the more severe greens, not problematic. On Saturday they're going to blow — I know. 'Problematic,' they are sometimes with wind. But some of them with a north and northwest wind blow from back to front, and we are concerned about that."
Bit of a Freudian slip there with "problematic," Mr. Bodenhamer!
In any case, I find this explanation of greens and wind direction a little confusing. I think Bodenhamer may have mixed up "front to back"/"back to front," or just used those terms in a way I haven't seen.
But I believe the "problematic" greens in a more northerly iteration of Shinnecock's west wind would be 7, 10, and 16. In the prevailing SW wind, 7 and 16 play into the wind, and 10 plays in a right to left wind. In a NW wind, 7 and 16 would play more significantly downwind, and 10 would be almost directly downwind. And if those greens firm up, they would become very, very difficult to hold in those conditions. Keep in mind that William Flynn clearly designed Shinnecock to play best in the prevailing summer wind; he probably assumed that in northerly winds, only the more adventurous members would venture out.
(If anyone has a better interpretation of what Bodenhamer said here, let me know.)
Anyway, once the tournament starts, I hope the wind issue does not continue to be framed as a "problem." The course's exposure to the elements is one of its greatest assets — and one of the best reasons to keep staging the U.S. Open here once a decade. Enjoy it!

